ITRI China recently held its first Tin Market Outlook Reception in Beijing. This seminar attracted 91 delegates, including representatives from most of the leading producers, consumers and trade houses. A poll was conducted on participants’ views on the market outlook both locally and globally for 2013, and the results showed that the majority were expecting only a very gradual improvement in market conditions.
Due to demand in China being weak this year, a high level of imports has resulted in a large build-up in inventory. The production of Chinese domestic solder companies has reduced by more than 10% in 2012. Although China’s tinplate capacity has expanded greatly in recent years, the capacity utilisation is only around 50%. Currently, the tin chemicals business is the only major application where there may have been some increase in tin usage in 2012.
Mr Cui Lin ITRI’s Chief Representative in China said that “These factors have definitely had a major impact on the findings from this survey. While there was general confidence that the Chinese economy would achieve solid growth next year, people surveyed were quite cautious about price prospects, with most expecting only modest gains from current levels.”
The consensus view on the market outlook was that conditions would gradually strengthen through the year. Most of the delegates expected the highest tin price would be in the 4th quarter of 2013 and the lowest tin price would be in the 1st quarter of 2013.